Currency: AUD Importance: 2 Forecast: 0.40% Previous: 0.10% Notes: Investors will focus on the upcoming release of Australian retail sales data for October. This report is crucial indicator of the Australian consumer spending levels and provides insights into the broader economic performance.

According to Bloomberg, Australian retail sales are expected to decrease from 0.7% in September to 0.1% in October. This decline could signal a further easing of inflation, which dropped from 3.8% in Q2 to 2.8% in Q3. Lower inflation levels may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider reducing interest rates. Consequently, if inflation continues to decline, markets could price in a potential rate cut by the RBA, exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar against major currencies, including the US dollar.

Historical Impact: AUDUSD AUDJPY

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 48.80 Previous: 48.50 Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company's performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 47.50 Previous: 46.50 Notes: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies across the United States. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), a diffusion index is calculated by adding the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.

The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with differing weights: New Orders --30% Production --25% Employment --20% Supplier Deliveries --15% and Inventories -- 10%.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: 54.80 Notes: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index.

The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: 7.443M Notes: A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations.

JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:
1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time.
3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: 233K Notes: ADP performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 57.00 Previous: 55.00 Notes: The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants.

An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 55.50 Previous: 56.00 Notes: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.

The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries.

A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting. Given the large proportion of the US economy engaged in the services sector, this report offers insights into the health of the overall US economy.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: 58.10 Notes: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.

The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.

The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: -1.844M Notes: The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

Historical Impact: USOilRoll

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: - Notes: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 – Feb. 2026) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar's value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: - Previous: 213K Notes: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD

Currency: EUR Importance: 2 Forecast: 0.40% Previous: 0.40% Notes: Bloomberg forecasts that European economic growth could rise from 0.6% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q3. However, if the growth rate falls short of expectations, markets may anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to continue reducing interest rates. Recent comments from ECB board members suggest a willingness to gradually lower rates toward a "neutral" range - between 3% and 2% - that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth.

It's important to note that markets have already priced in the likelihood of 25-basis-point interest rate cuts at the next three European Central Bank (ECB) meetings. Further rate reductions could support European stock indices, including the ESTOX.

Historical Impact: ESTOXX EURUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.30% Previous: 0.40% Notes: Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the amount of money businesses pay for labour, excluding the agricultural sector.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: EURUSD USDJPY

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 183K Previous: 12K Notes: Jobs report, a key determinant of the Federal Reserve's strategy for tis December meeting. With US inflation stabilising, the Fed is now focussed on labour market data, which showed a significant slowdown in October.

Bloomberg estimates that the US economy will add 200,000 josb in November. If the report falls below its expectations, it could confirm a cooling economy and bolster the case for easing monetary policy. This would increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December. Markets have currently priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut, but a higher likelihood of reduced rates could weaken the US dollar, potentially driving up gold prices.

Historical Impact: EURUSD USDJPY XAUUSD

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 4.10% Previous: 4.10% Notes: The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is not working, yet actively seeking employment.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: EURUSD USDJPY

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 5.50% Previous: 5.50% Notes: The Fed announces its target interest rate, impacting USD demand. A rate hike is generally bullish for the USD, while a rate cut is bearish.