Economic Calendar

JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

09-Dec-24, Mon, 05:20 IST

Currency: JPY Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.20% Previous: 0.20% Notes: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the JPY, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the JPY.

Historical Impact: USDJPY

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

10-Dec-24, Tue, 09:00 IST

Currency: AUD Importance: 3 Forecast: 4.35% Previous: 4.35% Notes: Australian inflation rates dropped significantly from 3.8% in Q2 to 2.8% in Q3, increasing the likelihood that the RBA may consider reducing rates to levels that neither hinder nor overly stimulate economic growth.

Bloomberg forecasts suggest that the RBA could hold interest rates steady at this meeting. Attention will then shift to the central bank governor’s press conference (scheduled 1 hour post the decision), where hints about future monetary policy could emerge. Any indication that rate cuts are approaching, could weigh on the Australian dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen, which is currently buoyed by expectations of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Historical Impact: AUDUSD AUDJPY

German CPI (MoM) (Nov)

10-Dec-24, Tue, 12:30 IST

Currency: EUR Importance: 3 Forecast: -0.20% Previous: 0.40% Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. As Germany has the largest output of any country in the euro-zone, the European Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

Historical Impact: EURUSD EURJPY

USD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)

11-Dec-24, Wed, 19:00 IST

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.30% Previous: 0.30% Notes: Bloomberg expects US inflation levels to rise slightly, from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, while core inflation is projected to remain stable at 3.3%.

Despite inflation moving contrary to the Federal Reserve’s targets, markets are pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the next meeting. A lower-than-expected inflation rate, particularly in the core index, could reinforce this expectation and increase the likelihood of further rate cut in March. In this scenario, US stock indices, including the S&P500 – which recently surpassed the 6,000 threshold – could benefit.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD US500

USD CPI (MoM) (Nov)

11-Dec-24, Wed, 19:00 IST

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.20% Previous: 0.20% Notes: Bloomberg expects US inflation levels to rise slightly, from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, while core inflation is projected to remain stable at 3.3%.

Despite inflation moving contrary to the Federal Reserve’s targets, markets are pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the next meeting. A lower-than-expected inflation rate, particularly in the core index, could reinforce this expectation and increase the likelihood of further rate cut in March. In this scenario, US stock indices, including the S&P500 – which recently surpassed the 6,000 threshold – could benefit.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD US500

USD CPI (YoY) (Nov)

11-Dec-24, Wed, 19:00 IST

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 2.70% Previous: 2.60% Notes: Bloomberg expects US inflation levels to rise slightly, from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, while core inflation is projected to remain stable at 3.3%.

Despite inflation moving contrary to the Federal Reserve’s targets, markets are pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the next meeting. A lower-than-expected inflation rate, particularly in the core index, could reinforce this expectation and increase the likelihood of further rate cut in March. In this scenario, US stock indices, including the S&P500 – which recently surpassed the 6,000 threshold – could benefit.

Historical Impact: USDJPY EURUSD US500

BoC Interest Rate Decision

11-Dec-24, Wed, 20:15

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 3.25% Previous: 3.75% Notes: The Bank of Canada (BOC) publishes its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

Historical impact on Assets: CADJPY USDCAD

Crude Oil Inventories

11-Dec-24, Wed, 21:00

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: Previous: -5.073M Notes: The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

Historical impact on Assets: USOILRoll

10-Year Note Auction

11-Dec-24, Wed, 23:30

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: Previous: 4.347% Notes: The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Note auctioned.

U.S. Treasury Notes have maturities of two to ten years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Note represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.

Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

Historical impact on Assets: USDJPY

SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4)

12-Dec-24, Thu, 14:00

Currency: CHF Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.75% Previous: 1.00% Notes: Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing board members come to a consensus on where to set the target range for the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CHF, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CHF.

Historical impact on Assets: CHFJPY USDCHF

EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)

12-Dec-24, Thu, 18:45

Currency: EUR Importance: 3 Forecast: Previous: 3.25% Notes: Bloomberg anticipates a 25-basis point rate cut, from 3.40% to 3.15%, to align with neutral levels suggested by some ECB board members as being between 2% and 3%.

While overall European inflation has risen from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in November, core inflation has remained steady at 2.7% since September. Markets expect the ECB to continue its rate cuts, pricing in three reductions over the next three meetings.

Investors will also closely watch the ECB President, Christine Lagarde’s press conference for hints about the potential end of the rate-cutting cycle. Such signals could boost the euro while negatively impacting European stock indices like ESTOX, DAX.

Historical impact on Assets: EURJPY EURUSD ESTOX DE40Roll

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

12-Dec-24, Thu, 18:45

Currency: EUR Importance: 3 Forecast: 3.15% Previous: 3.40% Notes: Bloomberg anticipates a 25-basis point rate cut, from 3.40% to 3.15%, to align with neutral levels suggested by some ECB board members as being between 2% and 3%.

While overall European inflation has risen from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in November, core inflation has remained steady at 2.7% since September. Markets expect the ECB to continue its rate cuts, pricing in three reductions over the next three meetings.

Investors will also closely watch the ECB President, Christine Lagarde’s press conference (Scheduled 30 mins post the decision) for hints about the potential end of the rate-cutting cycle. Such signals could boost the euro while negatively impacting European stock indices like ESTOX, DAX.

Historical impact on Assets: EURJPY EURUSD ESTOX DE40Roll

US Initial Jobless Claims

12-Dec-24, Thu, 19:00

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 221K Previous: 224K Notes: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

Historical impact on Assets: USDJPY EURUSD

USD PPI (MoM) (Nov)

12-Dec-24, Thu, 19:00

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.30% Previous: 0.30% Notes: The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in input prices of raw, semi-finished, or finished goods and services. If input costs rise, some will be absorbed by the producer and some passed on to the consumer. Conversely, if input costs fall, some of the decline will be enjoyed as wider profit margins by the producer and some will be passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices. Because PPI impacts consumer prices, it is watched by central bankers as part of fulfilling their mandate of price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical impact on Assets: USDJPY EURUSD

USD 30-Year Bond Auction

12-Dec-24, Thu, 23:30

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: Previous: 4.608% Notes: The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Bond auctioned.

U.S. Treasury Bonds have maturities from ten up to 30 years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bond represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.

Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

Historical impact on Assets: USDJPY EURUSD

GBP GDP (MoM) (Oct)

13-Dec-24, Fri, 12:30

Currency: GBP Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.10% Previous: -0.10% Notes: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Historical impact on Assets: GBPJPY GBPUSD

Fed Interest Rate Decision

19-Dec-24, Thu, 00:30

Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 4.46% Notes: A continued easing of inflation and robust labour market could give the Fed more room to implement rate cuts without stoking inflation fears, supporting the case for a soft landing.