Key Economic Events: For The Week Of 15th December 2024 & Beyond
Release Date: 15th December 2024
US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
16-Dec-24, Mon, 20:15 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 49.40 Previous: 49.70 Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country.

A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction.

Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company's performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge.

While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
US Services PMI (Dec)
16-Dec-24, Mon, 20:15 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 55.70 Previous: 56.10 Notes: The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics.

The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies.

The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants.

An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact: USDJPY
US Services PMI (Dec)
16-Dec-24, Mon, 20:15 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 55.70 Previous: 56.10 Notes: The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics.

The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies.

The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants.

An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact: USDJPY
CAD Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
17-Dec-24, Mon, 19:00 IST
Currency: CAD Importance: 2 Forecast: Previous: 1.70% Notes: According to Bloomberg, Canadian inflation is projected to decline from 2.0% in October to 1.9% in November, while core inflation (exclusind energy and food) expected to ease from 2.6% to 2.5%.

The Bank of Canada reduced interest rates by 50 basis points in its most recent meeting, lowering the rate from 3.75% to 3.25%. With inflation continuing to decline, there remains potential for further rate cuts in upcoming meetings. Markets currently estimate a 65% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Januray meeting. However, lower-than-expected inflation data could increase expectations for this rate cuts, potentially weaking the Canadian dollar against major currencies like the US dollar.

Historical Impact: USDCAD CADJPY
CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
17-Dec-24, Mon, 19:00 IST
Currency: CAD Importance: 2 Forecast: 0.10% Previous: 0.40% Notes: According to Bloomberg, Canadian inflation is projected to decline from 2.0% in October to 1.9% in November, while core inflation (exclusind energy and food) expected to ease from 2.6% to 2.5%.

The Bank of Canada reduced interest rates by 50 basis points in its most recent meeting, lowering the rate from 3.75% to 3.25%. With inflation continuing to decline, there remains potential for further rate cuts in upcoming meetings. Markets currently estimate a 65% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Januray meeting. However, lower-than-expected inflation data could increase expectations for this rate cuts, potentially weaking the Canadian dollar against major currencies like the US dollar.

Historical Impact: USDCAD CADJPY
US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
17-Dec-24, Tue, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.60% Previous: 0.40% Notes: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country.

It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
GBP CPI (YoY) (Nov)
18-Dec-24, Wed, 12:30 IST
Currency: GBP Importance: 3 Forecast: 2.60% Previous: 2.30% Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items.

The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

Historical Impact: GBPJPY
EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
18-Dec-24, Wed, 15:30 IST
Currency: EUR Importance: 3 Forecast: 2.30% Previous: 2.30% Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items.

The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

Historical Impact: GBPJPY
Crude Oil Inventories
18-Dec-24, Wed, 21:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Previous: -1.425M Notes: The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.

The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

Historical Impact: USOILRoll
FOMC Statement
19-Dec-24, Thu, 00:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Notes: Bloomberg anticipates that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down from 4.75% to 4.50%. Investors will pay close attention to the "dot plot", which reflects Federal Reserve members' projections for future rate changes. If the dot plot signals more aggresive rate cuts in 2025, it could impact major US stock idices, inlcuding US2000.

Additionally, traders will tune in the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into the Fed's monetary policy outlook for the coming year.

Historical Impact: USDJPY RUSS2000 UT100Roll
FOMC Economic Projections
19-Dec-24, Thu, 00:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Notes: Bloomberg anticipates that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down from 4.75% to 4.50%. Investors will pay close attention to the "dot plot", which reflects Federal Reserve members' projections for future rate changes. If the dot plot signals more aggresive rate cuts in 2025, it could impact major US stock idices, inlcuding US2000.

Additionally, traders will tune in the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into the Fed's monetary policy outlook for the coming year.

Historical Impact: USDJPY RUSS2000 UT100Roll
Fed Interest Rate Decision
19-Dec-24, Thu, 00:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 4.38% Previous: 4.62% Notes: Bloomberg anticipates that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down from 4.75% to 4.50%. Investors will pay close attention to the "dot plot", which reflects Federal Reserve members' projections for future rate changes. If the dot plot signals more aggresive rate cuts in 2025, it could impact major US stock idices, inlcuding US2000.

Additionally, traders will tune in the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into the Fed's monetary policy outlook for the coming year.

Historical Impact: USDJPY RUSS2000 UT100Roll
FOMC Press Conference
19-Dec-24, Thu, 01:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Historical Impact: Notes: Bloomberg anticipates that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down from 4.75% to 4.50%. Investors will pay close attention to the "dot plot", which reflects Federal Reserve members' projections for future rate changes. If the dot plot signals more aggresive rate cuts in 2025, it could impact major US stock idices, inlcuding US2000.

Additionally, traders will tune in the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into the Fed's monetary policy outlook for the coming year.

Historical Impact: USDJPY RUSS2000 UT100Roll
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
19-Dec-24, Thu, 08:30 IST
Currency: JPY Importance: 3 Actual: 0.25% Previous: 0.25% Notes: Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board publishes its decision about where to set the target overnight rate.

As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the JPY, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the JPY.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
19-Dec-24, Thu, 17:30 IST
Currency: GBP Importance: 3 Actual: 4.75% Previous: 4.75% Notes: Bloomberg expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rate at 4.75%. However, traders will closely monitor the vote distirbution among committee members.

A higher number of votes favouring rate cuts could increase expectations for reductions in future meetings, potentially supporting the UK100 stock index.

Historical Impact: GBPJPY UK100Roll
US GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
19-Dec-24, Thu, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Actual: 2.80% Previous: 2.80% Notes: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
US Initial Jobless Claims
19-Dec-24, Thu, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Actual: 245K Previous: 242K Notes: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
19-Dec-24, Thu, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Actual: 2.50 Previous: -5.50 Notes: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index measures the relative level of business conditions amongst manufacturers in the Federal reserve district.

A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
US Existing Home Sales (Nov)
19-Dec-24, Thu, 20:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Actual: 4.11M Previous: 3.96M Notes: Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualised number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the prior month.

This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is an important indicator of overall economic strength.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY
US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
20-Dec-24, Fri, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Actual: 0.20% Previous: 0.30% Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy.

Unlike the fixed-weight CPI, PCE is chain-weighted and thus adjusts to changing consumer behaviour. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure and thus receives greater attention.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Historical Impact: USDJPY

Source: Bloomberg, ADSS, News Articles, Company Research. Notes as of 15th December 2024, 10 PM.

For historical data, please visit: https://quantwater.tech/resources