Holiday - Mexico - Constitution Day
03-Feb-25, Mon, All Day IST
Currency:
MXN
Importance:
3
Notes:
This national holiday commemorates the enactment of Mexico’s Constitution on February 5, 1917. The 1917 Constitution was drafted during the Mexican Revolution and was the first in the world to include social rights, serving as a model for subsequent constitutions globally. The holiday is officially observed on the first Monday in February, which in 2025 falls on February 3. Celebrations often include festivals, parades, and various cultural events throughout the country.
Historical Impact:
Legacy Reference
Holiday - China - Chinese New Year
03-Feb-25, Mon, All Day IST
Currency:
CNY
Importance:
3
Notes:
Chinese New Year is a major holiday in China, marking the beginning of the lunar new year. Financial markets and businesses are closed, resulting in lower trading volumes across Asia.
Historical Impact:
Legacy Reference
EUR - CPI (YoY) (Jan) P
03-Feb-25, Mon, 15:30 IST
Currency:
EUR
Importance:
3
Forecast:
2.50%
Previous:
2.40%
Notes:
European inflation rose from 2.2% in November to 2.4% in December, but this didn't stop the European Central Bank from continuing its interest rate cut cycle at its last meeting.
Bloomberg expects the ECB to cut rates again in March, but inflation nearing 3% could complicate further easing. Additionally, growing concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and Europe - sparked by President Trump's plans to impose tariffs on European goods - could prompt retaliatory measures from the EU. This escalation may drive inflation higher and hinder the ECB's ability to continue cutting rates, impacting negatively on European stock indices such as the DAX 40.
Historical Impact:
EURJPY
EURUSD
DE40Roll
USD - Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
03-Feb-25, Mon, 20:15 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Forecast:
50.1
Previous:
49.4
Notes:
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
03-Feb-25, Mon, 20:30 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
49.3
Notes:
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies across the United States. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), a diffusion index is calculated by adding the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with differing weights: New Orders --30% Production --25% Employment --20% Supplier Deliveries --15% and Inventories -- 10%.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
03-Feb-25, Mon, 20:30 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
52.5
Notes:
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
04-Feb-25, Tue, 20:30 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
8.098M
Notes:
A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations.
JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:
1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time.
3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - Alphabet Earnings Release
05-Feb-25, Tue, 02:00 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
1.55
Notes:
Earnings are released typically released post closure of the market.
Historical Impact:
UT100Roll
USD - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
05-Feb-25, Wed, 18:45 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
122K
Notes:
ADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - Services PMI (Jan)
05-Feb-25, Wed, 20:15 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Forecast:
52.8
Previous:
56.8
Notes:
The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants.
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - Non-ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
05-Feb-25, Wed, 20:30 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
54.1
Notes:
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.
The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries.
A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting. Given the large proportion of the US economy engaged in the services sector, this report offers insights into the health of the overall US economy.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - Non-ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
05-Feb-25, Wed, 20:30 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
64.4
Notes:
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.
The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.
The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
05-Feb-25, Wed, 21:00 IST
Currency:
Global
Importance:
3
Previous:
3.463M
Notes:
The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.
If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
Holiday - New Zealand - National Day
06-Feb-25, Thu, All Day IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Notes:
Waitangi Day, observed annually on February 6th, is New Zealand’s national day, commemorating the initial signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840. This treaty, considered the nation’s founding document, was an agreement between representatives of the British Crown and over 500 Māori chiefs.
Historical Impact:
Legacy Reference
GBP - BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
06-Feb-25, Thu, 17:30 IST
Currency:
GBP
Importance:
3
Forecast:
4.50%
Previous:
4.75%
Notes:
UK inflation declined from 2.6% in November to 2.5% in December, while core inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.2% over the same period. This decline strengthens the case for the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, from 4.75% to 4.5% at its upcoming meeting.
Investors will be particularly focused on the voting split among committee members. A strong majority in favour of a rate cut could signal further cuts in coming meetings, especially in May. A potential rate cut could boost British stock indices, including the UK100.
Historical Impact:
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
UK100
USD - Initial Jobless Claims
06-Feb-25, Thu, 19:00 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
207K
Notes:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
USD - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
07-Feb-25, Fri, 19:00 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
0.30%
Notes:
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. economy is expected to add 150,000 jobs in January, a decline from 256,000 in December. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%
If job growth falls below expectations, it could signal a weaker labour market, increasing pressure on the Fed from President Trump to push for interest rate cuts. This, in turn, could weigh on the U.S. dollar and support gold prices, given the negative correlation between gold and the dollar.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
XAUUSD
USD - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
07-Feb-25, Fri, 19:00 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
256K
Notes:
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. economy is expected to add 150,000 jobs in January, a decline from 256,000 in December. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%
If job growth falls below expectations, it could signal a weaker labour market, increasing pressure on the Fed from President Trump to push for interest rate cuts. This, in turn, could weigh on the U.S. dollar and support gold prices, given the negative correlation between gold and the dollar.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
XAUUSD
USD - Unemployment Rate (Jan)
07-Feb-25, Fri, 19:00 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Previous:
4.10%
Notes:
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. economy is expected to add 150,000 jobs in January, a decline from 256,000 in December. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%
If job growth falls below expectations, it could signal a weaker labour market, increasing pressure on the Fed from President Trump to push for interest rate cuts. This, in turn, could weigh on the U.S. dollar and support gold prices, given the negative correlation between gold and the dollar.
Historical Impact:
USDJPY
EURUSD
XAUUSD
Fed Interest Rate Decision
20-Mar-25, Thu, 0:30 IST
Currency:
USD
Importance:
3
Forecast:
4.31%
Previous:
4.38%
Notes:
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the expected Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is projected to be 4.33% as of 20th March 2025.
Historical Impact:
CME FedWatch