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Key Economic Events: Week Of 09th February 2025
Release Date: 10th February 2025
Holiday - Japan - National Day
11-Feb-25, Tue, All Day IST
Currency: JPY Importance: 3 Notes: Japan's National Day is a public holiday, and financial markets are closed.

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USD - NFIB Small Business Optimism
11-Feb-25, Tue, 16:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 1 Notes: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components. It comprises survey results from amongst the organisation's members. In providing an indication of the health of small businesses in the U.S., it is important to watch as roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce work for small businesses. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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USD - Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies
11-Feb-25, Tue, 20:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Notes: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 –) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

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USD - Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies
12-Feb-25, Tue, 20:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Notes: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 –) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

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USD - Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
12-Feb-25, Wed, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.20% Notes: This week, the preliminary U.S. Consumer Price Index data for January will be released, with Bloomberg foreacsting the YoY inlfation to remiain stable at 2.9%, unchanged from December.

Meanwhile, the YoY core inflation (excluding nergy and food) is expected to decline slightly from 3.2% to 3.1%, marking lowest level in over three and a half years.

The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts in its last meeting after reducing interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024. Fed policymakres closely monitor inflation and labour market data when making decisions. A continued decline in core inflation could pave the way for future rate cuts, which would likely weaken the U.S. dollar and boost precious metal prices, including silver.

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USD - CPI (MoM) (Jan)
12-Feb-25, Wed, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.40% Notes: This week, the preliminary U.S. Consumer Price Index data for January will be released, with Bloomberg foreacsting the YoY inlfation to remiain stable at 2.9%, unchanged from December.

Meanwhile, the YoY core inflation (excluding nergy and food) is expected to decline slightly from 3.2% to 3.1%, marking its lowest level in over three and a half years.

The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts in its last meeting after reducing interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024. Fed policymakres closely monitor inflation and labour market data when making decisions. A continued decline in core inflation could pave the way for future rate cuts, which would likely weaken the U.S. dollar and boost precious metal prices, including silver.

Learn More: USDJPY EURUSD XAGUSD
USD - CPI (YoY) (Jan)
12-Feb-25, Wed, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 2.90% Notes: This week, the preliminary U.S. Consumer Price Index data for January will be released, with Bloomberg foreacsting the YoY inlfation to remiain stable at 2.9%, unchanged from December.

Meanwhile, the YoY core inflation (excluding nergy and food) is expected to decline slightly from 3.2% to 3.1%, marking its lowest level in over three and a half years.

The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts in its last meeting after reducing interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024. Fed policymakres closely monitor inflation and labour market data when making decisions. A continued decline in core inflation could pave the way for future rate cuts, which would likely weaken the U.S. dollar and boost precious metal prices, including silver.

Learn More: USDJPY EURUSD XAGUSD
Global - Crude Oil Inventories
12-Feb-25, Tue, 21:00 IST
Currency: Global Importance: 3 Previous: 8.664M Notes: The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

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USD - 10-Year Note Auction
12-Feb-25, Tue, 23:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Previous: 4.680% Notes: The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Note auctioned.

U.S. Treasury Notes have maturities of two to ten years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Note represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.

Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

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GBP - GDP (YoY) (Q4) P
13-Feb-25, Thu, 12:30 IST
Currency: GBP Importance: 3 Previous: 0.900% Notes: The UK GDP recorded its strongest growth in over a year-and-a-half, rising from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q3. The upcoming report will provide insights into consumer and business spending, as well as government expenditures, helping assess the health of the British economy. Sustained economic growth could lead to higher corporate profits and support a rally in UK stock indices such as the UK100.

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GBP - GDP (QoQ) (Q4) P
13-Feb-25, Thu, 12:30 IST
Currency: GBP Importance: 3 Previous: 0.000% Notes: The UK GDP recorded its strongest growth in over a year-and-a-half, rising from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q3. The upcoming report will provide insights into consumer and business spending, as well as government expenditures, helping assess the health of the British economy. Sustained economic growth could lead to higher corporate profits and support a rally in UK stock indices such as the UK100.

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GBP - GDP (MoM) (Dec)
13-Feb-25, Thu, 12:30 IST
Currency: GBP Importance: 3 Previous: 0.10% Notes: The UK GDP recorded its strongest growth in over a year-and-a-half, rising from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q3. The upcoming report will provide insights into consumer and business spending, as well as government expenditures, helping assess the health of the British economy. Sustained economic growth could lead to higher corporate profits and support a rally in UK stock indices such as the UK100.

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EUR - German CPI (MoM) (Jan)
13-Feb-25, Thu, 12:30 IST
Currency: EUR Importance: 3 Previous: -0.20% Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. As Germany has the largest output of any country in the euro-zone, the European Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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USD - Initial Jobless Claims
13-Feb-25, Thu, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Notes: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

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USD - PPI (MoM) (Jan)
13-Feb-25, Thu, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.20% Notes: The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in input prices of raw, semi-finished or finished goods and services. If input costs rise, some will be absorbed by the producer and some passed on to the consumer. Conversely, if input costs fall, some of the decline will be enjoyed as wider profit margins by the producer and some will be passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices. Because PPI impacts consumer prices, it is watched by central bankers as part of fulfilling their mandate of price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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USD - 30-Year Note Auction
13-Feb-25, Thu, 23:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Previous: 4.913% Notes: The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Bond auctioned.

U.S. Treasury Bonds have maturities from ten up to 30 years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bond represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.

Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

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EUR - Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4) P
14-Feb-25, Fri, 15:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 2 Previous: 0.00% Notes: Eurozone GDP growth remained steady at 0.9%in Q3, unchanged from Q2.

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates by 100 basis points since last year, with an additional 25-basis-point cut this year. Another 25-basis-point cut is expected in the next meeting to support slowing economic growth, despite inflation rising slightly from 2.4% in December to 2.5% in January

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USD - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
14-Feb-25, Fri, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.40% Notes: Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending which accounts for a large percentage of US GDP.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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USD - Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
14-Feb-25, Fri, 19:00 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Forecast: 0.40% Notes: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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Fed Interest Rate Decision
30-Jan-25, Thu, 0:30 IST
Currency: USD Importance: 3 Previous: 4.37% Forecast: 4.62% Notes: Recent data indicates that while inflation has moderated to 2.4% as of November 2024, it remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Simultaneously, the labor market continues to exhibit resilience, with jobless claims reaching an eight-month low. This combination of easing inflation and a strong labor market may provide the Federal Reserve with increased flexibility to adjust interest rates without reigniting inflation concerns, thereby supporting the possibility of a soft landing for the economy.

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Source: Bloomberg, ADSS, News Articles, Company Research. Notes as of 10th February 2025, 10 AM.
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